In a statement that has stirred global headlines, US President Donald Trump has claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him that India would completely stop importing Russian oil. The comment has sparked diplomatic chatter in Washington, New Delhi, and Moscow alike — raising questions about its accuracy, timing, and implications for India’s foreign policy.
Trump’s Bold Claim
Speaking at a campaign-style event in Florida, President Trump said,
“Prime Minister Modi told me they’re going to cut Russian oil imports to nothing. That’s a big thing, because India has been buying a lot from Russia.”
The remark immediately drew global attention, as India is currently one of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil, especially after Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to recent trade data, Russia accounts for nearly 40 per cent of India’s crude imports, a sharp increase from less than 2 per cent before the Ukraine conflict.
Trump’s statement, therefore, seemed to contradict both India’s economic interests and its public foreign policy stance, which has consistently emphasized “strategic autonomy” — the right to pursue independent decisions based on national priorities.
New Delhi Yet to Respond
The Indian government has not officially responded to Trump’s claim. Officials in New Delhi have maintained that India’s oil imports are guided by national interest, and that it will continue to buy energy from wherever it gets the best deal.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly said that India’s oil imports from Russia “keep global prices stable” and are not driven by politics but by economic necessity.
In 2024, when asked about US pressure on India to reduce Russian imports, Jaishankar famously said,
“Europe buys more oil in one afternoon than India buys in a quarter. Let’s be fair about this.”
That response reflected India’s firm stance against Western double standards, particularly as European nations continued to rely on Russian gas despite criticizing others for similar trade ties.
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Why Trump’s Statement Matters
While Trump is known for making bold and sometimes exaggerated claims, his remark is politically significant for several reasons:
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Election-Year Optics:
As the US heads toward elections, Trump’s statement could be aimed at showcasing his ability to influence major global players, including India — now seen as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific. -
Pressure on the Biden Administration:
Trump may also be indirectly criticizing President Joe Biden for being “soft” on India regarding Russian oil, implying that only under his leadership could the US “convince” New Delhi to act. -
Impact on India’s Global Image:
If the claim gains traction internationally, it could create confusion about India’s energy and foreign policy direction, especially as the country balances its relations with both Washington and Moscow.
The Reality: India’s Oil Strategy
In truth, India’s energy policy is shaped by pragmatism, not political promises.
India imports over 85 per cent of its crude oil needs, making energy security a critical national issue. When Western sanctions made Russian oil cheaper, India took advantage of the discounts, saving billions of dollars in import costs.
Even today, Russian crude remains $6–10 cheaper per barrel compared to other sources, allowing India to manage domestic fuel prices amid global volatility.
Analysts say a complete halt to Russian imports, as Trump suggested, would:
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Increase India’s import bill by 10–15 per cent.
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Disrupt the refining and distribution chain, since Indian refiners have optimized plants for Russian blends.
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Potentially strain ties with Moscow, a longstanding defense and strategic partner.
Moscow’s Reaction
The Kremlin has not officially commented on Trump’s statement, but Russian officials have previously praised India for maintaining energy trade despite Western pressure.
In March 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said,
“India has acted as a sovereign nation, not as a vassal. It buys oil based on its national interests, and we respect that.”
If India were to significantly cut imports from Russia, it would alter Moscow’s export strategy, forcing Russia to rely even more heavily on China as its primary energy buyer.
India’s Balancing Act
Since the Ukraine war began, India has walked a delicate diplomatic line — maintaining strong ties with both the US and Russia, while avoiding taking sides.
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With the US, India has deepened defense cooperation through the QUAD alliance and various technology initiatives.
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With Russia, it continues to maintain critical partnerships in defense, space, and energy.
Analysts say India’s goal is to preserve strategic independence in a multipolar world.
A senior Indian diplomat, speaking anonymously, noted:
“We don’t make foreign policy announcements through campaign speeches. India’s position on Russian oil remains unchanged.”
Global Oil Market Impact
If India were to actually cut Russian oil imports — even partially — it could have major global consequences.
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Oil Prices Could Rise: Russia would need to find new buyers for its crude, while India would turn to Middle Eastern or US suppliers at higher prices.
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Refinery Adjustments: Indian refineries would have to reconfigure processing units built for Russian blends.
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Trade Shifts: India could increase imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — but at higher costs.
Economists estimate that global oil prices could rise by 5–7 per cent in the short term if India withdraws from the Russian oil market.
What Analysts Are Saying
Energy and geopolitical experts are skeptical of Trump’s claim.
Dr. Swati Dhingra, an economist at LSE, said:
“India’s oil decisions are economic, not political. Trump’s claim sounds like campaign rhetoric rather than a policy development.”
Similarly, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center noted,
“India has resisted US pressure before. It’s unlikely that Modi would make such a sweeping commitment, especially given domestic priorities and fuel price sensitivities.”
The Political Angle in India
Within India, opposition parties have seized the moment to question whether Modi made such a promise privately. The Congress Party demanded clarification, saying,
“Did the Prime Minister make a secret assurance to the US President that affects India’s energy security?”
Government sources, however, insist that no such assurance was made, and that India’s foreign policy remains sovereign and independent.
Conclusion: More Noise Than Policy Shift
At present, there is no evidence that India plans to end or even reduce Russian oil imports. Trump’s claim, while headline-grabbing, appears more like political posturing than a reflection of actual policy.
India’s approach continues to be guided by its national interest, focusing on stable supplies, affordable prices, and balanced global relations.
For New Delhi, the message remains consistent:
